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Post-Summit Analysis covering EU Summit

The paper does not ‘only’ analyze the key issues on the Summit agenda (Brexit; EMU reform; migration; MFF). Given that the December Summit was the last European Council meeting before the EU enters the final stretch towards the end of the current politico-institutional cycle.
The final section of the paper offers an account of the current state of affairs (‘tale of two narratives’), dares to look into the immediate future (‘battle of (split) camps’), and ends with a proposal on a potential shared Leitmotif for the next EU leadership.

PM Leadership Challenge – Just survived

Conservative MP’s trigger a vote of no confidence in May’s leadership of Brexit negotiations with the EU. Prime minister defeats leadership challenge after Conservative MPs vote to back her by 200 to 117, and survives confidence vote with a majority of 83.

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Meaningful Vote

UK Parliamentary debate on deal leading to MP’s vote on 11 th
December. Vote postponed by May who heads off to Brussel’s to
negotiate further with EU leaders on the Back Stop terms. May held
in contempt by the Lower House for postponing vote at such short
notice. The meaningful vote is postponed until week beginning 7 th
January 2019. May needs 320 votes in Parliament to get approval
deal, however the Conservatives hold 316 seats in 650 set Lower
House.

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Our Future Our Choice’s new battlebus

The bus, organised by the youth movement Our Future Our Choice, aims to show MPs the strength of feeling in young people about Brexit. This marks a new phase of campaigning by young people that calls for a final say on the Brexit deal.

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Dominic Raab
Second Brexit Secretary to resign

The second Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigns from his post in disagreement with the Cabinet owned Brexit deal.

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Cabinet sign-up to May’s Brexit deal

UK Cabinet ministers approve the draft deal on Brexit followed by a series of registrations including the foreign secretary Brexit minister and a few junior ministers.

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Brexit submit

May headed to Brussel for a special Brexit submit to seal the deal with her EU counterparts.

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People’s Vote

Young people come together to demand a say on Brexit. In October a people’s took place in London calling for a new Brexit referendum. Organizers claim that 700,000 people attended the march – representing all generations – to demand a people’s vote on the final terms of any Brexit deal. That would make it the second largest protest in the UK this century after the Stop the War demonstration in 2003.

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The moment of Truth.

The moment of Truth. May meets fellow EU leaders and the European Commission to try to seal deal in the terms of UK’s withdrawal and what kind of relationship it will have with the EU in the future.

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Respect

May says no to EU proposed deal on the future UK and EU economic relationship and Backstop for Northern Ireland. The EU’s offer to the UK consisted of:

1. UK staying in the European Area and Custom Union. This would mean the UK obeying EU rules and not being able no establish separate trade deals with the rest of the world.

2. Free trade deal that would include Northern Ireland remaining within the custom union to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (see Good Friday Agreement for more details).

May rejected point 1 because it would fail to deliver on the referendum by staying within European control and without voting rights. Parliament rejected point 2 because it threatens the integrity of the UK union.

May wants from the EU an agreement that sees frictionless free trade of goods that protects the integrity of the UK union in the same way the EU wants to protect its own Union.

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Studying in the UK or EU

Erasmus+ in the UK if there’s no Brexit deal. If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 without a deal, the UK Government will:

  • Underwrite Erasmus+ funding for all successful bids submitted while the UK are still in the EU. This arrangement is dependent on reaching agreement with the EU that UK organisations can continue to be eligible to participate in Erasmus+ projects and;
  • Funding for successful bids will continue for the lifetime of those particular projects
  • You will still be able to bid for new funding until 2020, if we reach an agreement with the EU that UK organisations can participate in Erasmus+ projects post-exit after the UK has left the EU

For further information Erasmus+ in the UK if there’s no Brexit deal

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What happens if we have no deal by March 2019?

The government is planning to publish, in two tranches in late August and early September, about 70 technical notices on how businesses and consumers should prepare for no deal.

  • It means that pretty much all of the current arrangements that join us to the rest of Europe – covering everything from air transport to pharmaceuticals – would simply vanish.
  • The fall in the pound following the original Brexit vote is estimated to have already cost the average household about £400-a-year.
  • In principle, aircraft could be grounded, British road hauliers would be unable to operate to and from the continent and border crossings on both sides of the channel could be gridlocked. You might need a visa for your summer holiday, and many UK-based manufacturers that are part of ‘just-in-time’ supply chains could be forced to halt production.
  • In practice, it’s likely that the UK and the EU would come up with some emergency measures to stop a complete breakdown.
  • The 3.4 million European citizens living in the UK won’t become illegal immigrants overnight and/or UK residents lining in the 27 EU member states.

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Theresa May’s Red Lines on Brexit: Chequers Plan July 2019 (see paper attached)

The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Our proposal is comprehensive. It is ambitious. And it strikes the balance we need – between rights and obligations.

  • It would ensure that we leave the EU, without leaving Europe.
  • It would return accountability over the laws we live by to London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, and end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.
  • It would preserve the UK’s and the EU’s frictionless access to each other’s markets for goods, protecting jobs and livelihoods on both sides, and propose new arrangements for services.
  •  It would meet our shared commitments to Northern Ireland and Ireland through the overall future relationship, in a way that respects the EU’s autonomy without harming the UK’s constitutional and economic integrity.
  • It would end free movement, taking back control of the UK’s borders.
  • It would see the UK step out into the world, driving forward an independent trade policy by striking trade deals with new friends and old allies.
  • It would maintain the shared security capabilities that keep citizens in the UK and the EU safe, as we work in partnership with Member States to tackle crime and terrorism.
  • It would end vast annual contributions to the EU budget, releasing funds for domestic priorities – in particular our long-term plan for the NHS.
  • It would take us out of the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy, ensuring we can better meet the needs of farming and fishing communities.
  • It would maintain our current high standards on consumer and employment rights and the environment.
  • And it would enable co-operation to continue in areas including science and international development, improving people’s lives within and beyond Europe’s borders.
  • In short, the proposal set out in this White Paper would honour the result of the referendum.
  • It would deliver a principled and practical Brexit that is in our national interest, and the UK’s and the EU’s mutual interest.

 

Political debate so far

All the major speeches given to date on Brexit by the main party leaders.